A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
