Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
